|Event Date||Tue Dec 7 EST (about 1 month ago)|
It seems that this U.S. economic cycle is going to be more like a boom-bust than the type of recovery after the Great Recession. While recession risks are extremely low now, they may eventually rise more quickly than prior downturns.
Stress in U.S. supply chains brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic isn’t abating, giving downside risk to Moody’s Analytics forecast for GDP growth in the near term and a clear upside risk to our forecast for inflation. It will likely take time for the supply chain issues to ease, which could keep inflation on U.S. goods elevated. The Fed could face a situation where higher consumer prices begin to weigh on consumer spending, reducing GDP growth.
The actionable insights to help you better manage your credit portfolio during this uncertain time:
• Lessons learned from the COVID-19 economy and a look at peak U.S. growth.
• U.S. bond market risks given elevated inflation and continued supply chain issues.
• Insights from Moody’s Analytics on how its corporate credit risk signals perform in different economic cycles.
• Macroeconomic themes and at-risk industries to watch going into 2022.
Senior Director-research, Moody's Analytics