US Housing & Housing Finance Outlook 2021 | Moody's Investors Service | 9 December 2021 | Online

Mortgage companies and banks, mortgage insurers, RMBS:
• Non-Bank mortgage companies will face profitability pressures as mortgage volumes decline.
• Residential mortgage net charge-offs will rise very modestly for Fannie and Freddie as well as for banks.
• Mortgage insurers will benefit from favorable economic conditions, good capitalization, lower delinquency rates and solid profitability.
• Relaxing credit will somewhat weaken new RMBS collateral; losses in outstanding RMBS will rise but remain low.

Homebuilders, retail, brokers and information companies:
• Continued solid single-family home demand, supported by strong fundamentals, will benefit homebuilders, however growth will moderate.
• Home improvement’s operating performance stabilizes as outsized demand eases and costs, supply chain pressures rise.
• Expect moderating but still robust conditions for brokers in 2022, as existing home sales will fall from 2021’s level but remain above pre-COVID levels.

REITs, CMBS, PFG (HFAs):
• Housing REITs will continue to benefit from faster than expected rental growth rates, supported by strong demand, shortage of inventory and geographic migration.
• As new supply continues to come on line, rental rates for multifamily properties within CMBS will continue to grow, but at a slower pace than in 2021.
• Expect strong HFA multifamily performance and recovery of single-family portfolios.

2021 Speakers

Warren Kornfeld
Senior Vice President, North America Banks and Finance Companies, Moody's Investors Service

Rachael Mcdonald
Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Us Public Finance, Moody's Investors Service

Griselda Bisono
Vice President - Senior Analyst, Us Homebuilding, Moody's Investors Service

Yehudah Forster
Senior Vice President, Us Rmbs, Moody's Investors Service

Philip Kibel
Associate Managing Director, Moody's Investors Service

Christina Boni
Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance, Moody's Investors Service

Edmond Deforest
Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance, Moody's Investors Service

Bob Garofalo
Vice President-senior Credit Officer, Insurance, Moody's Investors Service

Harshad Mehta
Vice President-senior Analyst, Cmbs, Structured Finance, Moody's Investors Service