As RBC Capital Markets’ Chief U.S. Economist, Tom Porcelli tracks and analyses U.S. macro economic data to develop forecasts around the country’s growth and prosperity. He also closely monitors and provides commentary on the U.S. fiscal outlook and the monetary policy decisions made by the Federal Reserve. Mr. Porcelli’s views are sought globally as he travels extensively to present on the U.S. economy and U.S. markets. Prior to joining RBC, Mr. Porcelli worked as an economist at Merrill Lynch, where he was a member of the team responsible for economic forecasting and Fed watching.
In other words, the decline versus the pre-COVID-19 level is becoming less deep as some jobs start to come back — albeit modestly as the reopening is only recently under way.28 September 2021
To be sure, we sympathize with the narrative that some economic activity could be lost for good. In other words, you don’t double up on certain services spending once the dust settles because you put it off on COVID-19 fears. But a short-term drop-off in activity (even if not fully recoverable) has a diminishing impact on the net present value of future cash flows the further out your horizon goes!!28 September 2021
I think [more stimulus checks are] going to be a very hard sell. If you have a Republican Senate, I think that’s almost a nonstarter.28 September 2021