9th Annual Real Estate Outlook 2023 | CFA Society New York | 8 June 2023 | CFA Society New York, 1540 Broadway New York City, NY 10036, USA

A skyscraper boom in the roaring 1920’s heralded the rise of the modern office building, crammed with swivel chairs and desks. As corporate giants emerged and Wall Street firms flourished, office-space demand exploded in the 1970’s, fueling a wave of new tower blocks, such as the World Trade Center and the Sears Tower. Now, as hybrid and remote work reduces demand for physical workplaces, a different type of potential boom — adaptive reuse — is gathering steam.

There are two significant structural forces impacting today’s commercial real estate office market:

The rise of hybrid work combined with a flight to quality by companies seeking newer office buildings with high-quality amenities. As a result, older, commodity-like office buildings are becoming competitively obsolete
The Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation is being combatted with an interest rate regime change that is resetting office values and straining capital structures.
Accordingly, a growing number of distressed office buildings is reflecting a recognition by owners and lenders that the robust return to the office they had hoped for isn’t likely ever to materialize. The number of employees returning to the office has plateaued at around half the level it was before the pandemic, reflecting the popularity of remote and hybrid work policies.

Public and private sector investment is beginning to respond to this dramatic shift in office use. Most major urban city administrations are unveiling recommendations to facilitate the conversion of underused office space into alternative uses including housing and hospitality. Private equity firms, distressed debt investors and owner/operators are beginning to embrace this trend and seeking underutilized and/or distressed office assets for adaptive reuse.

2023 Speakers

Melissa Román Burch
COO, NYCEDC

Patrick Nessenthaler
CFA, CAIA, MAI, CRE, Founder & CEO, Ness & Associates

Robert Fuller
AIA, LEED® AP, Studio Director, Principal, Gensler

Shane Taylor, Ph.D.
Americas Head of Research, CBRE Investment Management