Deglobalisation or ‘Slowbalisation’? 2022 | Oxford Economics | 20 April 2022 | Online

We look at whether the Russia-Ukraine conflict could be the trigger for a period of deglobalisation where the decades-long expansion of world trade and investment goes into reverse. We consider the evidence from recent trends in world trade and FDI, the impacts of trade reorientation by Russia and of possible changes in payment systems for resource exports from Russia and other economies, and the effect of the war on the potential ‘decoupling’ of the Chinese economy with the economies of the West. Will these factors fracture the world trade system or is a much more muted impact more likely?