Predicting recessions is hard. There are simply too many incalculable, volatile variables—as we’ve seen with the war in Ukraine and COVID-19—that can throw a wrench in even the most well-respected of economists’ forecasts. And as Albert Edwards, a strategist at French investment bank Société Générale, explained in a recent note: “History shows that, to the (limited) extent economists do actually predict a recession, its tardiness usually means they give up waiting just at the point it...

Stanley Druckenmiller fears a recession is on the way after more than a year of aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve have failed to quash inflation. The famed hedge funder, who now operates the Duquesne Family Office, said Wednesday that despite the economy’s recent resilience—headlined by a low unemployment rate and positive first-quarter GDP growth—he believes a “hard landing” is inevitable. “Our central case is there’s more shoes to drop, particularly—in addition to the...

In 1982, after Oklahoma’s Penn Square Bank failed, Republican Rep. Ed Weber of Ohio scolded regulators during a hearing, calling the collapse “an indictment of the regulatory system.” But officials at the Comptroller of the Currency, which was responsible for auditing Penn Square, fired back, blaming fellow regulators and the bank’s management for relying on high-risk energy loans. Sound familiar? Last month, following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank, Republican...

Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images You probably won’t find Cem Karsan in an office. In order to talk to the veteran volatility trader and derivatives expert you have to go to the “open outcry pit” of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), where traders gather like they did in the age before online brokerages to bark buy and sell orders. Karsan, founder and senior managing partner of Kai Volatility Advisors, has leveraged his decades of experience on the trading floor of the CBOE to develop...

There’s a common saying on Wall Street that’s often repeated during periods of high inflation and rising interest rates. It goes something like this: The Federal Reserve will raise rates—until something breaks. Last month, that something was Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). The rapid collapse of tech startups’ favorite lender, along with fellow midsize U.S. banks Signature Bank and Silvergate Bank, led to instability in the banking system, forcing regulators to step in and rescue depositors. The...