Alec Haesler, Director at Carl Marks Advisors, has decades of experience working with and advising restaurant clients through some of the toughest of economic times.
Restaurants will trim their menus, phase out cumbersome curbside pickup channels and invest in automation as operators balance labor pressure with off-premise demand, analysts say.
Picture quick service three decades ago, Papa John’s CEO Rob Lynch says. The game was get guests through the machine. You heard clandestine stories of restaurants building uncomfortable stores just to keep people from hanging around. “Becoming more consumer centric, I think that’s an evolution that’s been in the works for some time,” he says.
After a lengthy stretch of soft results, the restaurant industry is enjoying some upward movement again. In the week ending October 17, restaurants posted their strongest sales and traffic growth in four weeks, according to Black Box Intelligence. But there is an underlying driver worth tracking—year-over-year check growth of 5.7 percent, the highest figure recorded since mid-April. Check growth has lifted 5 percent or more during each of the last seven weeks.
Alec Haesler, a director at Carl Marks Advisors, said it is likely operators will shift between proteins if one protein source is experiencing sustained price inflation or shortages.
Alec Haesler, director at Carl Marks Advisors, calls it a “delicate line to walk.” For now, it will pay off to remain transparent. “As this is occurring everywhere, consumers have been somewhat accommodating of the situation—whether that be a short-staffed rush hour or an increase in the price of a meal,” he says. “Some of this might be offset by consumer excitement to be back out-and-about. However, as the current environment persists, we may start to see cracks in consumers’ willingness to accommodate.”
"There are a lot of moving pieces to the staffing conversation,” says Alec Haesler, director at Carl Marks Advisors. “You will likely see a mix-and-match approach, with operators leveraging a combination of technology and location design to improve staffing efficiency as best they can."