I am a senior member of The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Global Forecasting team and broader Editorial operations. I lead The EIU’s analysis on international commerce and regulations, and manage the Country Commerce team, which produces comprehensive evaluations on the commercial regulatory environment across 56 major economies worldwide. I also contribute to The EIU’s political and economic forecasts on the US, and work closely with senior leadership to advance The EIU’s wider international and comparative research.
My research focuses on key regulatory and business climate issues involving international trade, investment, competition, labor, migration and development, among other policy areas. I have served as an advisor and consultant on a number of policy projects at The EIU and other leading institutions. I frequently present The EIU’s forecasts to international clients across the public, private and nonprofit sectors. My work has been featured in the Washington Post, the South China Morning Post, Nikkei, Voice of America and Fox Business, among other media outlets.
I speak fluent French and have a working knowledge of Spanish.
There have been conversations and a lot of optimism in Washington DC among policy maker and industry groups about the possibility for reshoring and leveraging supply chains in North America to make them more secure. The countries have very integrated markets and a free trade agreement. But that optimism is overblown.
There are a number of reasons why there won’t be any kind of game-changing supply chain shift out of Asia to North America. For one, trade and production from Asia proved fairly resilient during the pandemic, more so than other regions, with the hit to exports lower than in other regions and recovery quicker.
Even taking the pandemic into effect, we see Asian exports continuing to grow at a greater pace through 2025, while North America’s share remains unchanged.26 December 2021