Trump's Second Term: Economic Uncertainty Looms
Armando warns that Trump's second term may not cause a recession but highlights economic uncertainty. "It's a classic case of mixed signals," he notes, with risks from tax cuts and trade tensions. Despite strong indicators like low unemployment, the outlook remains contradictory, suggesting potential stagnation or recession.
Fed's Measured Approach Likely Amid Core PCE Surge
Armando suggests the Fed may adopt a measured approach, balancing rate cuts against inflation risks. With expectations of a 25 basis point cut, the mixed data indicates disinflationary trends but persistent core pressures. Initial market reactions were muted, with stock futures down 0.5%, a weaker dollar, and a 10-year Treasury yield rise to 3.85%.