Chris Kelly | Source | CEO at Upwave

TV advertising is undergoing a significant shift, with US television ad volume predicted to plummet by a quarter by 2027 based on Brian Weiser’s predictions. On top of JIC’s recent evaluation of TV currencies ahead of NewFronts.

Streaming platforms are grappling with the challenge of balancing revenue growth with viewer aversion to ads, as evidenced by a staggering 78% of US streaming subscribers resisting ads, leading to 35% upgrading to ad-free plans according to Bango’s report.

Here’s some commentary from Chris Kelly, CEO of Upwave:

"The deeper story here is the shift we’re currently experiencing–from the ‘Ratings Era’ to the ‘Outcomes Era.’ The past few years have already been plagued with economic uncertainty (and thus pressure from CFOs to limit brand advertising dollars). Now, with predicted decreases in TV ad inventory, it becomes even more imperative for advertisers to demand real-world-impact from their advertising investments, be that a brand outcome, a behavioral outcome, or a business outcome."

The latest advancement in TV measurement involves a collaborative effort by broadcasters through a joint industry committee (JIC) to explore alternatives to Nielsen, with the goal of improving accuracy and inclusivity in TV audience measurement. Recently, the JIC revealed its choice to endorse Comscore and VideoAmp as national TV currencies in preparation for upcoming upfront negotiations in May.

Certification indicates that both Comscore and VideoAmp have met the strict standards established by the JIC, ensuring the accuracy and representativeness of their data sets. This validation is vital for participants within the TV advertising ecosystem, offering a dependable foundation for transactions between buyers and sellers.

In response to this significant development, Upwave CEO Chris Kelly offers his commentary on the implications for the industry and the opportunities presented by these certified TV currencies:

“We're happy to see the JIC has finished their evaluation and certified these two currencies. Counting audience sizes will always be table stakes, but advertisers don't want the media industry spending more time stuck in the past. As counting TV viewership is a job that shifts to ad servers, brands want the industry prioritizing outcomes over mere viewership metrics. This shift is crucial for both media owners and advertisers, as it allows for a deeper understanding of the effectiveness of advertising campaigns across all channels. Moving forward, our collective focus must remain on evaluating outcomes—brand, behavioral, and business—across cross-channel video campaigns, ensuring that every ad delivers tangible results."

regarding Netflix's recent announcements regarding its streaming of NFL Christmas games and the launch of its in-house adtech platform.

Netflix to Stream NFL Christmas Games:
Netflix has made headlines with its announcement to become the global home of the NFL's two marquee Christmas Day games, starting on December 25, 2024. The streaming giant has also confirmed plans to continue this tradition for at least three seasons, extending the festive cheer into 2025 and 2026. Chris Kelly, CEO of Upwave, offers insightful commentary on Netflix's strategic move, shedding light on its implications for the streaming industry and sports entertainment landscape.

“Netflix’s announcement last week that it will stream two NFL Christmas games marks a significant milestone in the convergence of traditional sports broadcasting and streaming platforms. The NFL, the biggest audience draw on television, is taking steps toward Connected TV (CTV) in alignment with broader consumer behavior trends as viewers increasingly migrate to streaming services. This move is about more than just keeping up with consumer preferences; it harnesses the dual benefits of digital and traditional media. On CTV, brands can enjoy the granular measurement and precise targeting characteristic of digital advertising, coupled with the full-screen, immersive storytelling typical of linear TV. The NFL's migration to platforms like Netflix, Peacock, and Amazon for Thursday Night Football (TNF) highlights the broader industry shift. For Netflix, this is a strategic play to tap into the unmatched brand-building power of live sports. This exciting development also dovetails with the explosive popularity of sports-related content, such as our piece on Taylor Swift's influence, underscoring the intersection of pop culture and sports.”

Netflix's In-House Adtech Platform:
In another significant development, Netflix unveiled its plans to launch an in-house advertising technology platform by the end of 2025. This announcement was made during Netflix's second Upfront presentation to advertisers, promising new opportunities for advertisers to engage with audiences and measure campaign effectiveness. Once again, Chris Kelly, CEO of Upwave, provides valuable insights into the implications of this move, offering perspectives on the evolving dynamics of streaming advertising and its impact on the broader digital media landscape.

“Netflix's launch of its new in-house adtech platform further proves that it is positioning itself as a future powerhouse in CTV advertising. By developing its own adtech infrastructure, Netflix aims to enhance its ad offerings and gain more control over its advertising ecosystem, signaling to the market its readiness to compete head-on with traditional TV networks. Recent Nielsen Gauge numbers underscore Netflix's rising prominence, showing it as the fourth-largest TV network by viewership, prompting us to consider Netflix in the same league as NBC, Paramount, and other major networks. The combination of strong viewership numbers and advanced adtech capabilities positions Netflix as a formidable player in the CTV advertising arena. Netflix's latest moves signify a strategic expansion into live sports streaming and solidification of its advertising prowess, offering brands and advertisers more opportunities to reach engaged audiences through innovative and targeted campaigns. As Netflix continues to evolve, it is clearly not just a streaming service but a significant player reshaping the future of television and advertising.”

Upwave is a leading authority on TV brand measurement. With Upwave, TV advertisers can track TV brand performance in real time, covering media effectiveness and on-target accuracy. Gain insights on channel, network, program, and genre.

Feel free to include Chris’ commentary in any possible editorial coverage on Netflix’ latest moves.