Ihab is responsible for product strategy, portfolio management and research in the international fixed-income area.
Indonesia's currency is tumbling and foreign money in its bond markets is heading for the exits, stoking fears that Southeast Asia's largest economy is finally starting to crack after months of remarkable resilience against global headwinds. Despite its history of merciless market drubbings during times of global economic stress, Indonesia was a surprising outperformer until August, buoyed in large part by its exports of gas, palm oil, and other prized commodities. Its stock market is Asia's best performer this year and the rupiah fell just 3% in the six months to end-August against a forceful U.S. dollar, while South Korea's won and the Thai baht both dropped more than 10%.
You still have reasonable carry, you still have a central bank, now at least, more proactive, and has a lot of credibility, and you still have the tailwinds from the commodities.