I am an economist and portfolio strategist, focused on cross-asset and international analysis. Making finance a more diverse and inclusive profession is near to my heart. I am a passionate worker, speaker, and manager, and am one of the very few people in the world who genuinely enjoys monetary policy press conferences. I am currently the Director of Portfolio Strategy on New York Life Investments' Multi-Asset Solutions team. My team is responsible for research, macro and asset class views, asset allocation, and thought leadership. I particularly enjoy working with our investment boutiques on insights, strategy, and solutions.
Two major things go into U.S. yields. One of them is expectations for the Fed funds rate, which would go to zero if we move into a recession in the U.S.; The other thing is the term premium.
What makes term premiums zero or even negative, as they’ve been in the U.S. even this year, are things like investor fears; some of the concerns we’ve seen about global growth, trade wars. So if you see the U.S. inch a little closer to recession and see some of these fears take hold, you could easily see negative U.S. yields.1 December 2019