Lauren Goodwin

Economist and Multi-Asset Portfolio Strategist at New York Life
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I am an economist and portfolio strategist, focused on cross-asset and international analysis. Making finance a more diverse and inclusive profession is near to my heart. I am a passionate worker, speaker, and manager, and am one of the very few people in the world who genuinely enjoys monetary policy press conferences. I am currently the Director of Portfolio Strategy on New York Life Investments' Multi-Asset Solutions team. My team is responsible for research, macro and asset class views, asset allocation, and thought leadership. I particularly enjoy working with our investment boutiques on insights, strategy, and solutions.

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  • Two major things go into U.S. yields. One of them is expectations for the Fed funds rate, which would go to zero if we move into a recession in the U.S.; The other thing is the term premium.

    What makes term premiums zero or even negative, as they’ve been in the U.S. even this year, are things like investor fears; some of the concerns we’ve seen about global growth, trade wars. So if you see the U.S. inch a little closer to recession and see some of these fears take hold, you could easily see negative U.S. yields.

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