Matt Colyar is an economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester PA. His work is primarily focused on the labor market and monetary policy in the U.S. He also covers the economies of Pennsylvania, Missouri, and several U.S. metro areas. Prior to joining Moody’s Analytics, Matt worked at the World Bank, focusing on private-sector development in South Asian countries, and in private industry as a financial analyst. He received his master’s degree in applied economics from Lehigh University and his bachelor’s degree in business administration from West Chester University.
The slowing economy would normally cause unemployment to rise. Instead, employers have been reluctant to let hard-to-replace workers go.
I think if you had told the Fed a year ago that people are still talking about a soft landing in early 2023, I think they'd be ecstatic. I’m hopeful that it is possible for wage growth and inflation to come down and for the Fed to be able to kind of tap the brakes and pause without causing a real increase in joblessness.