Newer technologies like 4D radar and continuous wave time of flight (CWTOF) cameras are starting to gain significant traction because of the need for better near-field sensing, and we’ll ultimately see ultrasound and other tech go away.
Lidar will finally start to find some traction in production vehicles, however that volume will remain minuscule and there are still way too many lidar companies so there will be some consolidation and some players disappearing in 2022-2023.
Attention will start to shift towards “the last 50 feet” (short range or nearfield sensing), in order to meet the demands of self-driving vehicles (trucking, robotaxis, etc.), and customer demands for more advanced ADAS and convenience features. The market will need to adapt since traditional radar and ultrasound are not sufficient anymore. The last 50 feet is a much harder problem to solve than highway driving, and it’s also the most important to the success of full autonomy within a city.