Mr. Donisanu is Chief Investment Officer and Private Wealth Manager at Franklin Madison Advisors. Peter is responsible for developing the firm’s capital market and economic outlook and sets the firm’s overall investment strategy. Mr. Donisanu’s work has been quoted in the financial press, including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, the Financial Times, Nikkei, Reuters and other global outlets and has appeared on CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg Television and Radio, the Business News Network and NHK World Japan.
Since formal talks have only just begun, we expect this trade-related narrative to remain with the markets for some time. That said, we expect risks related to tariff escalation to remain contained so long as talks remain productive and progressive.
Our base case scenario is: Buckle your seat belt. This is going to be a prolonged period of negotiations that’s going to ebb between getting what looks to be a quick resolution or we’re on the cliff of what appears to be a trade war, full escalation.
The broader picture is what could happen to the economies, the bigger economic impact, and if we did go down that path of rapid escalation, that could affect Chinese economic growth which is currently on a path toward slowing. That path of slowing growth could accelerate and lead to a whole host of concerns that we had about China’s economy going to fall off the cliff.