Preston Caldwell | Source | Head of Economics and Equity Analyst at Morningstar, Inc.
Preston Caldwell
Intellectually curious and relentlessly hard-working investment research analyst with unique combination of experience in fundamental, intrinsic value-oriented equity analysis along with top-down macroeconomic analysis.
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Morningstar, Inc.
Head of Economics and Equity Analyst
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18 Battered and Undervalued Quality Stocks
These wide- and narrow-moat stocks have suffered losses lately and are now trading in 4- and 5-star range.
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Covid-19, the share rebound and the hit to GDP
The covid-19 recession will hurt in the short term, but it won’t have the lasting effect of the downturn wrought by the Depression or the 2008 global financial crisis, says Morningstar.
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The impact of covid-19 and the recession on long-run GDP is key to understanding whether the recent rebound in equity prices makes sense. Our analysis shows that many recessions don't have a long-run impact on the economy. The worst recessions in terms of long-run impact (the Great Depression or the Great Recession) are generally the product of persistent economic policy error.
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The downturn in oil and gas activity beginning in late 2014 has continued to depress financial results for most oilfield-services companies, and Core Lab hasn't fully escaped the effects. Also, the coronavirus hit oil markets hard in 2020, although we expect the impact of the pandemic to be mostly temporary. In any case, Core Lab has impressively generated economic profits even at the cycle trough.
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We think China is now on a permanently slower growth path. We have long argued that China’s investment boom was unsustainable. Recent government policies had led to a slowdown in debt growth which, in turn, had fueled this explosion of investment, particularly in booming sectors such as real estate.
